We’ve seen this before

Yesterday, I talked about the Red Sox’ transformation from 2004 to 2009. Today I’m talking about other mini-dynasties, how they ended, and what we can learn.

I was born in 1978, so I’m only going to go as far back as the 1970s to look for mini-dynasties in the AL. In the 1970s, there was Oakland. In the late ’80s, early ’90s, there were the Twins. The Blue Jays won back-to-back titles in 1992 and 1993, and the Red Sox have recently been successful.

My question is: what makes Red Sox fans think that their recent run of success will be any different than those of the other teams? Time and again, the Yankees have come back to be the dominant force in the AL. I’m not sure anyone’s arguing against that, but its my contention that Red Sox fans should show a little humility. Two World Series does not a history make.

I will also admit, straight off, that not all these examples are equal. The A’s won three straight World Series in the 1970s, while the Twins won in 1987, then came from last place in 1990 to win the 1991 crown. So I’m already guilty of a radical oversimplication. Plus, there are several reasons to think that the Red Sox new position as 1A to the Yankees #1 may be permanent:

1) Market size and relative level of interest

Boston isn’t the biggest market, but it’s fairly big, the Red Sox are the main team, and the cable network (NESN) which carries the Sox brings in tons of money for the owners.

2) The owners

The trio of Henry, Lucchino and Werner have made winning the focus of the team.

3) Innovation

The Red Sox hired Theo Epstein, hired Bill James, and try to be on the cutting edge of baseball intelligence.

So what makes me believe a downfall is coming?

For one thing, it’s hubris. The Red Sox have nowhere to go but down. The Yankees haven’t won a World Series in eight seasons despite a bloated payroll. That’s going to change at some point.

On the second hand, as I discussed yesterday, the Red Sox need to remain a desirable destinaton for Latin players. There’s not a single team that comes to mind — the 2003 Marlins were probably the closest — that was built entirely from draft picks. As good as teams are at drafting, it’s still a crapshoot. The Red Sox will always be able to get some free agents, but they need to be able to get the ones they need. In fact, the Sox’ recent run of free agent signings leaves a lot to be desired, and is more defined by who they didn’t get (Mark Teixeira) than who they did (Dice-K, JD Drew, Julio Lugo).

Lastly, because I’m not sure how convincing all this is, the innovation that the Red Sox have been investing in and reliant upon is slowing down. The golden era of baseball innovation is slowly drawing to a close. Fielding statistics represent the last real dark corner of the baseball universe, and a place for teams to gain an advantage. Any additional advantages — like keeping players healthy — may represent continual progress, but is likely to be less important than the often frivolous nature of baseball (a hit here, a dropped third strike there) and, when teams all basically get on the same level technologically: money. When it comes right down to it, no one can compete with the Yankees there.

Let’s get this straight: I’m not complaining about the Yankees’ methods. Far from it. They have money and they should spend it. But Red Sox fans should realize that in the one lasting resource of the current baseball age, they will never, ever catch the Yankees. And the fans need to recognize what will happen when the rest of the playing field starts to level itself.

We’re off tomorrow but we’ll be back on Monday and pick it up again.